Pledges made at Cop28 would “would not be nearly enough” to limit global warming to 1.5C, says the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The IEA analysed a pledge signed by 130 countries accounting for 40% of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel combustion to triple global renewable power capacity by 2030 and double the annual rate of energy efficiency improvements every year to 2030.
The energy watchdog also assessed what the effect would be of the full implementation of the methane pledge of the Oil and Gas Decarbonisation Charter, signed at Cop28, which is to zero-out methane emissions and eliminate routine flaring by 2030.
The 50 companies that have signed up to it account for about 40% of global oil production and 35% of combined oil and gas production.
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The IEA found that full delivery on the pledges by current signatures would result in global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 being around 4 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent lower than would be expected without them.
However, the reduction in 2030 emissions represents only around 30% of the emissions gap that needs to be bridged to get the world on a pathway compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5C.
The IEA stated it will “continue to monitor the ongoing developments at Cop28 and update its assessment as needed”.
